Monday, November 28, 2005

Garbage In, Garbage Out

North to south
Empty
Running on
Bravado

Are you hoping for a miracle?
Are you hoping for a miracle?
--Bloc Party
Some bloggers who are otherwise level-headed and intelligent are giving credibility to an absolute bull**** theory being pushed by ex-Con Jay Currie. Jay, disclosing absolutely nothing about his analysis of polling data, predicts that the Conservatives will land less than 50 seats in the coming election.

Why is it bull? Where do we start with this pile of feces?

How about his "analysis" of BC? Jay predicts that the Cons will land 10 seats on the Left Coast. Yep. 10. Of course using his own polling data, we should see that this BS completes the transition to absolute horse****: Here's the review of BC's Fraser Valley/Southern Interior (10 seats available):
This area has been historically the most Conservative part of B.C. This is an area that unlike the rest of B.C., has had few NDP members of Parliament. This area is home to the Lower Mainland's bible belt. The Liberals have done even poorer here, winning only 2 seats since 1979. The NDP only 4.

Hmmm, looks like 8-10 seats locked up right there. How about the Interior itself (9 seats available)?
The interior part of B.C. currently is a very Conservative region. The Conservatives are expected to sweep this part of B.C., as their predecessors, the Canadian Alliance did in 2000. The NDP has historically done well here, but are unlikely to make any ground this election. The NDP died out here in 1997 when the riding of Kamloops elected the areas last NDP candidate, popular MP Nelson Riis. Since 1979, the Liberals have not done well here at all, winning zero seats.

Uhh, yeah, that's zero seats. Jay: that's almost 20 seats without even breaking a sweat. Not even mentioning the island, which is trending 50% Conservative.

Forgetting that for the moment, do you really think that the Liberals are going to be more popular after the last 12 months? DFO protests in the streets of Vancouver. A continued oil exploration moratorium. The...uh forget it. Even a cursory review of the Conservatives wins in Ontario reveals a huge conservative resurgence.

Let's keep going for a second...

The more likely scenario is, however, that the Tories’ lack of policy

As compared to the great policy initiatives this government keeps promising are just around the corner, but never actually delivers?
the perception that they have a “hidden agenda”, the media bias against the CPC, the predictable rumblings from the paleo and theocon Tories which will feed the media frenzy and the fact the nitwits have been suckered into a pre-Gomery Christmas election, will ensure they are in “loss” mode pretty much from the beginning.

Um, I think the voters who have turned to them since the Reform days have been pretty much subjected to this since the beginning. How exactly did it prevent the taking of almost 100 seats in the last election?

It makes not a lick of difference. Without the NDP support and with polling consistently showing the Liberals in the low 30's, there is nothing the Liberals can do to muster a ruling coalition.

It's a done deal.
The meaning of all of that
Some media is the wack
As you believe it's true
It blows me through the roof
Suckers, liars, get me a shovel
Some writers I know are damn devils
For them I say, "Don't believe the hype"
(Yo Chuck, they must be on a pipe, right?)
--Public Enemy

3 comments:

jaycurrie said...

Hey Patrick, I gave the Tories 41 safe seats. The Interior Bible belt is not going to suddenly swing Liberal. But the Tories are vunerable on the Island and in ridings surrounding Vancouver. Do you really like the Grewels' chances?

I may be completely wrong; but any bunch of folks who think running Rachel Marsden anywhere is an even mildly plausible idea are capable of depths of campaign dumbness hitherto unplumbed in Canadian politics.

Shamrocks! said...

Jay:

Ok, first off, the interior (outside of Abbotsford) is hardly bible belt material.

As for the island, without the anchor of the horrible David Anderson, Keith Martin's chances just sank. Lunney and the up-island crew are in fine shape.

Did you watch the Grey Cup? How about the riot at the Hyatt back in the day? BC is just not down with anything the liberals are selling, and their lower mainland "dream team" (bought with unexplained/unexpected "equalization" payments) has been ineffective at stopping "western alienation".

I don't know but i suspect that Dosanjh is in tight b/c of the grewel affair....and because he's an ass for a health minister.

Couldn't agree more about Marsden:
http://patrickmcclarty.blogspot.com/2005/10/hey-rachel-why-are-you-still-here.html

I'm not a big fan, but I think the Cons will nix the idea fast.

Don said...

The Marsden thing was one regional organizer's thoughts.

Name this "bunch of folks" Jay.