Irreconcilable Differences: Iran and Israel

We don't want a monster
Taking over
Tiptoe around
Tie him down
--Radiohead

Iran is heading, again, towards an eventual showdown with Israel. The power trio in the EU is failing, hampered by their own self interest. Meanwhile, the US and Israel regard Iran with growing concern as one of the world's most irresponsible states looms as a potential nuclear power.

Reality

The US is in no position to invade. Yet. This should be evident as they have their hands full with Iraq, an election, Afghanistan and the US' own polarized political environment. With barely enough men and women in uniform and a chilly UN/world political climate, an occupation is unthinkable logistically and untenable politically. So, what's the alternative?

The Afghan Model

If attack were necessary, a more successful model than the Iraq model (any will do, thank you) would be the Afghan model: take existing military dissenters or political leaders and back them to take over the state. By now, it has become obvious that one of the chief problems with Iraq was the movement to disband the entire Baathist hierarchy. Despite the fact that Baathist membership was a requirement for any job of importance, the US decimated the entire leadership structure of the country and replaced it with exiled former leaders, who were entirely out of the loop upon return. Case in point: Chalabi. The result: anarchy.

Afghanistan, it appears, worked because there were already dissident forces that were familiar with the battle ground, familiar with the nature of the conflict and were not out to destroy the bureaucracy of the state. The US may have 'outsourced' that battle, but for the most part it was successful. There may be deals made with local devils in return for local control of certain western areas, but the country's sovereignty is intact, the borders secure (kind of) and stability has returned. Even an election that was greeted with widespread participation and enthusiasm.

Application: Strengths/Weaknesses

The mullahs are not popular in Iran, but they are certainly not losing their grip on power just yet. This years' student uprisings were pathetic compared to the unholy terror they unleased in 2003. The five year anniversary on July 9, of the student uprising of '98 was an unbelievable event, that demarkated a complete failure of control by the Islamist state. Still, the reformists, under the auspices of 'democracy', have failed miserably in their parliaments and succeeded only in discrediting elections, the party system and democratic institutions. Admittedly, the mullahs running the show did much to kill the system themselves, but that was their intention-it was not the intention of the reformers.

Oil prices, of course, do not help. While the price of oil goes up, the mullahs are able to calculate the 'want' of trade with certain powers vs. the 'need' to destroy Israel. The calculation tips in favour of the 'need' to destroy Israel as the relative importance of non-oil trade relationships plummet with the rise in barrel prices. How important is the impotent EU's threat of trade sanctions? How likely is it that the EU will cut off another source of oil if Iran rejects their Chamberlain-like attempts to save peace?

The 'electorate', for its part, is not itching for change at this instant. With petro dollars rolling in, and steadily improving economy, Iranians can be pacified for now with money. At an economic growth rate of 6.1%, Iran represents one more emerging market that is coming into its own. Not only that, but the Purchasing Power Parity GDP/capita is reaching $7,000/yr. For Iranians, they seemed to have temporarily bought into the Russian Solution: stability for prosperity. With real capital market institutions, this will eventually fail as it did, classically, in Chile. For now, any problems can still be blamed on the US or Israel in a pinch, and 'globalization' being the eternal enemy of the Islamic Republic.

Calm Like A Bomb

An opportunity arises in the demographics of the state. With satellite tv and internet doing its best to cause some serious cognitive dissonance between the state fed news and the reality of the outside world, the tech savvy youth of the Iran are moving out of 736 and right into 2005. With a population mean average of about 23 years old, the nation has one key element working against it: youth. In every revolution, there have been common elements that drive radical change. Every revolution, be it the sexual revolution, the Palestinian uprising, the Russian Revolution, the French Revolution, etc all had mountains of passionate students working to right the course of the establishment to bend to their will. As Huntington showed us before, a critical mass of 'under 30's' is required for radical change Last year, the youth of Iran attempted to exercise their combined strength only to be met with brutal repression. And so, this demographic sits, plots, plans, organizes and keeps silent-for now.

Aftershocks

If Iran attacks (and subsequently attacked) or is pre-emptively attacked by an outside power, the aftershocks will not be unpredictable. Iranians will close ranks with their Ayatollah, and begin looking for retribution. Israel will undoubtedly be right in the middle of this skirmish, and of course the situation in Iraq will become more complicated. Forgetting Iraq for a moment, Israel's war with Iran will not be a typical ground war of course, but will consist of air strikes by planes and certainly missile strikes. If Iran starts off with a nuclear attack against Israel, Tehran, in all likelihood, might cease to exist within hours. As state sponsored celebrations get off the ground and Tel Aviv burns, Tehran will probably become a crater.

In previous wars against Israel, when one arab country attacked, others tended to join in the battle. The Palestinians will celebrate, certainly, but they are almost certainly immaterial in a real battle. Jordan, Egypt and Iraq are not threats to Israel, and their peace treaties or stalemates will probably hold. The only real wild card would be Syria. Syria, for its part has been feeling the heat from Israel over the past 3 months, with a recent attack on a Hamas leader in Damascus. The attack was not a sly, covert operation by Mossad, but a massive explosion of a car bomb by security forces, undoubtedly sending a message to the Boy Assad: watch your back.

This analysis is tiring me. ...attention wandering...