Dick Morris is on Point

A non-partisan strategist who actually offers analysis rather than insults.

THE ANTI-WAR TURN IS A LOSER

BY DICK MORRIS

September 23, 2004 -- STUNG by criticism that his campaign lacks direction and focus, Sen. John Kerry has chosen to base his candidacy on an all-out assault on President Bush's record in Iraq — indeed, opted to move to the left decisively and attack the war head-on.

Liberals will cheer Kerry's new-found decisiveness, but it opens the way for Bush to deal him a counterstroke that can all but end this election and finish off Kerry for good.

Kerry's right flank is now gapingly vulnerable to a Bush attack. According to Scott Rasmussen's tracking polls, 30 to 40 percent of Kerry's voters disagree with his new leftward tilt on Iraq.

This is apparent already, as Bush has hardened support in his core states and taken in swing states, like Florida (but just barely).

Now that Kerry has moved too far left in a misguided effort to enthuse his political base, Bush can close in for the kill and defend our action in Iraq and our global combativeness against terrorism as fundamental to the protection of our families at home.

Part of Kerry's vulnerability on the Iraq issue is because he is really not proposing anything new to deal with the war. His four-part "plan" — which centers on urging our allies and the U.N. to do more and calls for strong efforts to provide jobs to Iraqis (the John Edwards message, sent abroad) and to train Iraqi police and troops — just mirrors what Bush is already doing.

This strategy might shore up support in the northeast (although not in Maine) but it is not going to win over Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida. Kerry had an opportunity to attack, decisively, the administration on Iraq and offer a clear choice on the issue. He is coming late and drunk to the party, attacking Allawi, saying he will pull out in 6 months and basically saying that the war is a loss.

It's not a loss.... Yet.

It could be, but if Kerry is in, it will be a certainty. He lacks the resolve and clarity of Bush and does not seem to have any real direction on the issue. What will he do differently, other than pull out the troops? What is his plan to keep Iraq safe and, eventually peaceful? I don't know, and neither does the American public. This isn't to say Bush has done a great job on Iraq, because he hasn't. He is and has been hamstrung by an election year tip toe around Iraq, trying to keep casualty numbers down while trying to suppress revolts and whatnot. As soon as the election is done, I expect that the US forces will put the clamp down on the revolt, ASAP and let the military off the leash in suppressing some of the unruly elements of Iraq. It won't be pretty, but there will be elections, not doubt.

They have to remember that history will regard their methods as sound, as long as they win. If the US pulls out, their methods will be deemed incorrect, of course, and a sure way for that to happen is to have the US continue to half-step around the insurgents when they take over a town.

I'll take you on a journey
and I promise I won't leave you
(I won't leave you)
until you get the full comprehension
And when you do,
that's when the mission
or survival
becomes your every thought
Keep your eyes open,
cuz you don't wanna be caught
Half steppin with your weapon on safety
--Snoop