Saturday, June 05, 2004

Why Martin will Lose

first of all, he's lost ontario:

32-31: Liberals cling to lead: poll

Saturday, June 5, 2004 - Page A1

The federal election is an intense two-horse race with the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat as the Liberal Party continues to stumble in the pivotal battleground of Ontario, a new poll suggests.

The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, shows the Liberals now trail the Conservative Party by three percentage points in Ontario, a massive swing from the days preceding the campaign when they were leading in the province by 22 points. A solid victory for Liberal Leader Paul Martin likely depends on a fourth straight Liberal sweep of Ontario, but provincial dominance has slipped away.

Nationwide, the Liberals now stand just one point ahead of the Conservatives, 32 per cent to 31 per cent, with the NDP at 17 per cent. The Green Party has 6 per cent.

All figures reflect party support only among decided voters.

"This is bad, bad, bad for the Liberals," said Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos-Reid. "They've thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the Conservatives, and none of it seems to be working."

A seat projection based on the poll suggests the Liberals would win 115 to 119 seats, the Conservatives 110 to 114, and the NDP 17 to 21.

secondly, his momentum is gone. every week, the cons have been closer and closer, and now they are well within the standard margin of error. wow. from down by almost 30 points, to nothing.

lastly, martin is gone for the weekend when he's suffering the most, but before he left, he issued this statement....deftly spun by the press!:

Martin: Voters not paying attention


ST. JOHN'S, Nfld. (CP) - Paul Martin brushed aside another drop in the polls Saturday, saying Canadians aren't paying attention yet to the federal election and will vote for his party when they finally tune in.

The Liberals have continued their downward trend and are now in a virtual dead heat with Stephen Harper's Conservatives, according to the latest poll.

The Ipsos-Reid survey puts support for the Liberals at 32 per cent of decided voters, with the Tories at 31 per cent.

But Martin predicted a shift in fortunes by the June 28 vote.

"People are slowly coming to grips with the fact there is an election and I think that's what we're going through," he said.

"Canadians are going to have a real choice. . . I think that when Canadians are faced with that choice and understand the differences between the parties, they're in fact clearly going to vote Liberal."

yeah, that's it. the only time when canadians actually think and talk about politics, when the polls start to violently change and things get nuts, is when "canadians aren't paying attention."

one question: are you paying attention, paul? do you know that blaming the voter is a bad sign? shows a bit of arrogance, don't you think? a little patronizing, don't you think? 'daddy knows best'?

there's no humility here, no modesty, no responsibility, no accountability by the liberals. they are done.

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