Ipsos' Poll

the interesting thing about the poll is this bit near the end that breaks down the provinces, etc:

Liberal Party At 34% Support Nationally -- Now Tied With Conservatives At 36% In That Province…NDP (16%), Bloc Quebecois (44% In Quebec vs. 29% For Liberals)…


The latest Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV survey shows Liberal support at 34% among decided voters, down 1 point since Ipsos-Reid’s last sounding from May 18th-20th. Meanwhile, Conservative Party decided support is up nationally to 30% (up 4 points), and NDP decided support is down slightly to 16% (down 2 points). The Bloc Quebecois dominate the federal landscape in Quebec with 44% support (down 6 points) – leading the Liberals (29%, up 1 point) by a 15 point margin. Nationally, support for the Green Party is steady at 6% (up 1 point) and 2% of decided voters would vote for some “other “ party. Among all Canadians, 12% are undecided or would not vote if an election were held today (down 2 points).

In Ontario, the Liberal’s lead has evaporated as they now garner the support of 36% of decided voters (down 6 points) and are now tied with the Conservatives (36%, up 8 points). The NDP hold steady with one in five decided voter support.


Jack Layton’s recent campaigning has not proved fruitful for the NDP in British Columbia, as they have dropped 6 points to 14% decided voter support. The Conservatives with four in ten decided votes lead the Liberals by 5 points in this province, and the Green Party trails with the support of one in ten decided voters.


In Quebec, a 15 point margin separates the Bloc Quebecois (44%, down 6 points) from the Liberals (29%, down 1 point). The Conservatives and the NDP register low on the federal radar screen in this province.


In Alberta, the Conservatives (49%, down 5 points) hold a 22 point lead over the Liberals (27%, up 2 points). The NDP is a distant third with one in seven decided voter support.


In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Liberals have 36% decided support (up 4 points), leading the Conservatives (30%, down 10 points) by 6 points. The NDP is challenging in this province with one-quarter of decided voter support.


In Atlantic Canada the Liberals hold a commanding lead with 44% of the decided vote (down 6 points), the NDP and the Conservatives tied for second with one-quarter of decided voter support.

key phrase: In Ontario, the Liberal’s lead has evaporated as they now garner the support of 36% of decided voters (down 6 points) and are now tied with the Conservatives (36%, up 8 points).

the cons are gaining momentum taking on liberals and independents in ontario. that's a result of the mcguinty mishap, but there's more to it. the ndp gained nothing from that, only the cons.

okay, next important bit:

Two-Thirds of Canadians (66%) Believe It Is Time For A Change In Government, Only 29% Believe Liberals Deserve To Be Re-Elected…


Two-thirds of Canadians (66%, up from 60% two weeks ago) believe the statement “the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it’s time for another Federal political party to be given a chance to govern the country” is closest to their own opinion, compared to 29% (down 7 points) who believe the statement “the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the new leadership of Paul Martin” is closest to their own opinion. The remaining 5% of Canadians “don’t know” which statement is closest to their own opinion.

so, exactly everyone who is not voting for the liberals (the other 34%) believes that change should be coming fast. so where do you think the "undecided 12%" are going to park their vote? not with the liberals, it looks like. where does that leave the cons? up bigtime, assuming all those votes don't go to the ndp. here's the regional breakdown:

Agreement with the statement “the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it’s time for another Federal political party to be given a chance to govern the country” is highest in Alberta (76%), with Ontario (67%), Quebec (66%), and British Columbia (66%) trailing, followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (59%), and Atlantic Canada (50%).

so the average holds in ontario. that's important.

on harper's momentum:

Stephen Harper (+18) and Jack Layton (+15) Have Strong Momentum, While Paul Martin (-36) Is Plummeting… Gilles Duceppe +17 In Quebec…


Canadians were asked whether their opinions of the various major parties and their leaders has improved, stayed the same, or worsened over the last few weeks:

Three in ten Canadians (32%) say their opinion of Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party has improved over the last few weeks (9% “strongly improved”, 23% “somewhat improved”), 42% say their opinion has “stayed the same”, and 14% say their opinion has worsened (8% “somewhat worsened”, 7% “strongly worsened”). The remaining 12% of Canadians “don’t know” if their opinion has changed.

he's gaining rapidly. its interesting.....

a couple of weeks ago the cbc, the epitome of unbiased coverage (gag!) ran a quick poll of approval ratings of the party leaders. they ran a poll stating that martin was tops with 34% while harper was "only at 22%". what the cbc did not mention in that report was that harper was only known by 35% of the electorate, and that martin...was known by 84%.

the cbc: once more proven to be propaganda machine. don't believe the cbc hype. they must be on the pipe, right?