Tuesday, June 01, 2004

Conservative Upset

the canadian electorate is already making up its mind...and pollsters, parties and now the media are catching up:

there is a growing belief in a conservative upset this time around:

this is from ctv

Harper's latest swipe at Liberal policies comes as a new poll shows the Conservatives picking up momentum among voters -- possibly even enough to win a minority government.

The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, puts support for the Liberals at 34 per cent, the lowest level since Paul Martin became prime minister in December.

With 30 per cent support among decided voters, the Conservatives are nipping at their heels. And in vote-rich Ontario, the two parties are tied at 36 per cent -- a dramatic shift from the 22 point lead the Liberals had in mid-May, when they had the support of 49 per cent of Ontario voters.

Based on those numbers, Ipsos-Reid drafted a seat projection model that suggests the Liberals would win only 122 to 126 seats if an election were held today, while the Conservatives would get between 107 to 111 seats.

With almost four weeks to go and support for the Liberals falling, signs are pointing to the potential for a Conservative upset. But Harper told Canada AM not to "congratulate me yet."

wow. never thought i'd read that from a media conglomerate with ties to the globe and mail.

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