Chechnya at the Precipice. Again.

"For the price of success
The might hand him his head"
------gang starr, skillz

okay, so what's going on here? we have a rigged election, and a *gasp* moscow backed leader taking over chechnya...only to be killed later. where and how was the bomb that killed kadyrov planted? it was planted inside the newly constructed stadium where he was blown up. btw: there's some gruesome pictures depicting the aftermath over at drudge and at the bbc.

motives?

obviously, anyone who consorts with the devils from moscow is fair game for the islamists.. although there might be a coalition of the opportunists in this case. from the article it looks as if there might be family/clan interests involved. if it comes down to civil war again, this is going to get worse before it gets better. you can bet the assassination was a large, planned event, with support from a wide group. this took a lot of planning and a lot of cooperation. expect the revenge killings to start momentarily.

he was especially vulnerable being a former rebel...he had street cred, but probably a whole list of former hommies ready to take him out for turning coat.

What future for Chechnya?
PM - Monday, 10 May , 2004 18:37:06
Reporter: Emma Griffiths
MARK COLVIN: The death of Chechnya's President, Akhmad Kadyrov, represents one of the most serious challenges yet to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

So far, he's resisted calls from Russian parliamentarians to enforce direct presidential rule in Chechnya, announcing that the Republic's Prime Minister would act in the job until new elections can be held.

Sergei Abramov immediately announced his plans to tighten security. But his efforts may be futile, analysts are warning that the Republic is on the verge of outright civil war.

Moscow Correspondent Emma Griffiths reports.

EMMA GRIFFITHS: Vladimir Putin's plans for Chechnya have been destroyed, by one landmine strategically placed to kill the Kremlin's man.

(audio excerpt of bombing and machine gun sounds)

The Russian president had chosen Akhmad Kadyrov to resolve the Chechen conflict from within, hoping the former chief mufti and rebel leader could control the Republic.

But his good relations with the Kremlin earned him many enemies, and made him a target of previous assassination attempts.

So far no one has claimed responsibility for this successful assault, some analysts believe it was a coalition of forces, including Islamic militants from the Middle East.

Investigators in Chechnya are questioning suspects, as the residents brace for the inevitable revenge.

Islamic affairs expert at Moscow's Carnegie Centre, Alexei Malashenko, says the situation is likely to descend into a messy civil war.

ALEXEI MALASHENKO: This explosion proves that it's not an anti-terrorist operation but it is a war. I'm waiting for a kind of revenge on behalf of Kadyrov's clan, on behalf of Kadyrov's family, so I think that the situation in Chechnya will be very, very unpredictable.

I think that all kinds of frictions between different factions of Chechen society will aggravate, I mean the conflict between rebels in mountains and people of Kadyrov. Also I think that it will be conflict between the clan of Kadyrov and the rest of Chechen society, subordinated at the same time to Putin, to Kremlin.

So, so, so I don't look for any good in this situation in Chechnya.

EMMA GRIFFITHS: Alexei Malashenko believes the Kremlin will pursue its policy of so-called Chechenisation of the conflict. President Putin will now have to search for a new Chechen leader who is acceptable to him and to the Republic's warring clans.

There are no obvious successors and another presidential election, likely to be rigged like the last, will have to be held. That's likely to push back the election of a Chechen parliament, which had been slated for October.

The precarious political situation is a huge challenge for President Putin, just as he'd officially began his second and final term in office, but it's a bigger blow for the Chechens living with the conflict.

Alexei Malashenko again.

ALEXEI MALASHENKO: The majority of Chechen society was frustrated with Kadyrov, but anyway nobody wanted the revival of military activity, the revival of contradictions between all kind of forces in Chechnya.

So just today I talked to my colleagues and to my friends in Grozny and what can I say, you see they are afraid of how the situation can develop in the future.

EMMA GRIFFITHS: It's sure to mean a new wave of hardship, violence and repression that the residents of the tiny Republic have become all too used to.