Sunday, January 18, 2009

"The Victory"

When I am king, you will be first against the wall
With your opinion which is of no consequence at all
--Radiohead

Israel believes it has achieved victory:
Hamas has announced a one-week ceasefire after Israel said it was pulling its forces back to the Gaza border and suspending the 22-day war.
[...]
The Israeli campaign reached a turning point last week after Mr Olmert's government secured international guarantees that the flow of arms to Hamas in Gaza would be stopped. Israel was promised American involvement in the effort to stop shipments from Iran, a development that triggered offers of patrols by the Royal Navy and its French and German counterparts.

Hamas is nothing if not fully BS - The Israelis announce a unilateral ceasefire, so Hamas comes out and claims the same thing.

I guess this is good news that Israel has stopped its campaign, but at what cost? International opinion has essentially turned against Israel. Again.
Britain promised an extra £20 million for humanitarian relief in Gaza as Mr Brown used unusually strong language to criticise the extent of Israel's bombing campaign and ground incursions.

"We are yet to discover the full scale of the appalling suffering," he said. "Israel must allow full access to humanitarian workers and to relief supplies. We must also end Gaza's economic isolation by reopening the crossings that link it to the outside world."

Also of note, is the question of how arms are actually getting in to the Gaza Strip. If Israel has a Naval blockade, and the checkpoints are closed, and the crossing left is the border with Egypt, where dozens of tunnels link Egypt to Gaza. Egypt is basically a nominal ally of Israel in this case. A very real side question is how and why these arms are getting into Egypt and then to Gaza. It is not in Egypt's interest that these arms reach Gaza, and it certainly is not in Israel's interest either.

If Iran is shipping arms to Egypt, there should be further tightening of naval security in the area, which is why:
Israel was promised American involvement in the effort to stop shipments from Iran, a development that triggered offers of patrols by the Royal Navy and its French and German counterparts.

I wonder how much of this will spillover into joint patrols in the Aden and the Horn of Africa to stop piracy.

Two birds, one stone. Let's see if NATO takes an interest as a group in this venture.

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