Vancouver Centre: The Centre Cannot Hold

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
--YB Yeats

Gary Mason talks about the epic battle in VanCity:

VANCOUVER -- This may be the election Hedy Fry finally falls.

The indomitable Vancouver Centre Liberal MP has vanquished every foe she's faced since her inaugural election in 1993, a debut in which she took down no less than the sitting prime minister. But these are different times for the Liberals, especially in British Columbia, where the party's popularity has hit a historic low. The Liberals won eight seats in B.C. in the last election. They could lose them all this time around.

That's right: Ms. "Crosses are burning as we speak" Fry is going to be in for a tight battle. This could get super interesting:

The Tories are running perhaps the strongest candidate they have there in 20 years. Lorne Mayencourt was a Liberal MLA until last year, representing much of the same riding in the provincial legislature. He will siphon off a lot of Ms. Fry's traditional support. The Greens are offering up Adriane Carr, the popular one-time head of the party in B.C.. All of which makes the conditions ripe for NDP candidate Michael Byers, a nationally known academic and commentator, to run up the middle and snatch the whole thing.

Lorne is big on crime prevention and drug addiction treatment. He also once spent a week homeless to get a personal idea of what it is like to be homeless in Vancouver, and in his riding (as MLA) in particular.

Honestly, I don't know how good a shot Byers has, and if human beings have any kind of group intelligence, they won't give Adriane Car the time of day. I think this will come down to Mayerncourt vs. Fry. The "C" beside Mayercourt's name is going to drag him down, I think, but who knows? Lorne is well known as a provincial liberal, and a social liberal, too. And in BC, Dion is an Albatross around the neck.

This riding, of course, is the backbone of the Liberal party's support in BC. If Vancouver centre is lost, I expect that Kitsilano, Kerisdale, South Vancouver and the Eastside (not downtown eastside) to be up for grabs. It's that serious.

By the way, Conservative support in South Vancouver appears extremely high in certain places, if row upon row of houses with Conservative signs outside them are any indication. It may be because of this:

In Greater Vancouver, meantime, the Conservatives' opposition to Insite, the controversial safe-injection site, has found support among the area's massive Chinese community.

As I said before, I would have a hard time voting for the Conservatives, and this is a major reason why - Ideology is determining their stance on Insite, not science nor harm reduction principles, and it is totally ridiculous that they would shut it down.