Sunday, May 18, 2008

GOP: Barack and Demographics together, you know you in trouble

The jig is up and the GOP is coming to grips with what will be a banner year for the Democrats:
WASHINGTON -- The bad news has come from Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi -- a string of unexpected Republican defeats in congressional elections that have prompted GOP leaders to say, with candor unusual in politics, that the party is facing an outright catastrophe this November.

Increasingly, top Republicans are calling on their party to reinvent itself or risk driving away more voters and donors. The GOP image is so stale, said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), in a memo to colleagues last week, that "if we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf" because nobody is buying it.

A brief review....

1. Yes, Obama did lose to Hillary in the large states. However, the Dems will win those anyway. Are NY and Cali really going to the GOP? No, and with Illinois in the bag, those three states make up approximately 45% of the total electoral votes required to win.

2. Barack won more votes in several southern states than the entire GOP field in some primaries. Think about that.

3. Barack's core group of voters (black, educated, young) are heavily centred in large numbers in some of these states, particularly Virginia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Georgia, of all places, looks like its in play as well.

4. The framing of McCain as Bush's 3rd term surrogate is well underway, and with his soundbites regarding bombing Iran, staying in Iraq for 100 years, and his shared view with Bush that never talking to enemies is the correct strategy for foreign policy appear to back this idea. Framing of the enemy is hard if there is little to go on. Whether deserved or not, McCain is slowly being turned into John McBush.

5. McCain is susceptible to Obama's religious credentials. Obama may have a nutty pastor (as does McCain), but Obama talks the talk, walks the walk, and makes sermons from churches a regular occurrence. McCain famously referred to the the far-right religious fringe leaders as "agents of intolerance".

With the typical Democrat states locked up, and the GOP's southern states in danger of losing to Obama, there can only be one outcome: a massive defeat for the Republicans.

I'm calling it right now - not a simple defeat. Not a few states swinging to the Democrats. This will be a rout.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

calling it early... gutsy move. i would love to see it happen but i wouldnt count the gop out just yet. if mccain uses the same fear tactics as bush half as well they are in for a chance.
oh, and dont underestimate their ability to find (or invent) a swiftboat scandal for all of us!