Wednesday, July 18, 2007

US v. Pakistan v. al-Qaeda: Threesome in the NWFA

I woke the same as any other day
Except a voice was in my head
It said seize the day, pull the trigger
Drop the blade, and watch the rolling heads

One more time around might do it
One more time around might make it
--Soundgarden

Pakistan's new front:
Pakistan troops killed in ambush

At least 17 Pakistani soldiers have been killed in an ambush by militants near the Afghan border, officials say.

Twelve militants also died in the clash about 25km (15 miles) from Miranshah in North Waziristan, the army said.

President Musharraf has again ruled out declaring an emergency. There have been a spate of attacks since soldiers stormed a radical mosque in Islamabad.

The mosque assault prompted militants along the border to scrap controversial peace accords with the government.

Pakistan has been going easy on its militants hiding in the North West Frontier Area for some time now. After the signed truce with the area Taliban, the army agreed to stay out and allow the locals to keep the peace and disallow further instability in the region. For the longest time, the US has been content to watch. Pushing Pakistan too hard would lead to a serious meltdown at the leadership level, where Islamists might be able to overthrow Musharraf if he pushed the army too far into the NWFA, and created a crisis at the top. As al-Qaeda's leadership had been emasculated and put in self-exile in the mountainous border region, they were not a top concern and not worth pursuing if it meant that Pakistan could be destabilized.

Now it appears something has changed. The US is issuing threat reports stating al-Qaeda is back to pre-9/11 readiness, which I do not think is true for a moment. The US appears to think that Musharraf is going to topple anyways, and instead of risking US troops, they will push him to attack the tribal areas and other domestic targets in an effort to force a confrontation with the Taliban and al-Qaeda leadership. This has effectively broken the stalemate, and so again this situation on the border region is dynamic.

The US has long had its own and Nato troops on the Afghan side, and now Pakistan is moving its own into the area in a big way. Reports are stating that the country is on war footing as thousands of soldiers pour into the region. This is going to get dicey.

As the regional actors do the dance, Justice shows us how its done..

No comments: