Ukraine: It's Tricky

It's Tricky to rock a rhyme
To rock a rhyme that's right on time
It's Tricky...Tricky (Tricky) Tricky
--Run DMC

I was glancing at the Euro Policy Centre, and it's actually quite fascinating what they have lying around. This is an article on the recent article on the election in Ukraine:

If a crisis breaks out following the formal declaration of a Yanukovych
victory, the EU’s response should be a very sensitive mix of policies aimed at
curtailing the authorities, while helping the Ukrainian population. It could
include visa bans for officials and their families and economic measures,
including limits to the actions of Ukrainian industrial groupings (i.e. Donbas
Industrial Group), not to mention an indefinite refusal to entry into the WTO.

Look at the language from this official organ: it is aimed specifically at the heads of state in the EU. And they thought that the EU foreign policy was years away!
Key *Money Shots*

The political and business power in Ukraine lies in the hands of three main
oligarchic groups. These are the so-called Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Kiev
clans. Current President Leonid Kuchma is a member of the Dnipropetrovsk
group.

Okay, so the Family Compact lives in Kiev. Similar to other countries, where a few oligarchs run the show, like Korea.

...Most owners tend to cash in all profits as fast as possible without making any long-term investments. Almost of the oligarchic groups originate in eastern Ukraine, which is the country’s strongest economic region, in terms of productivity and degree of industrialization.

Ukraine’s current economic development rests largely on its very low labour costs and heavy industry goods. As long as global demand for products such as steel remains high, the Ukrainian economy will prosper, but the solid basis for sustainable long-term growth will not be created.

Bells going off? What does 'low labour costs' and 'workshop' sound like? China! Yeesh, think of the savings in shipping.

Firstly, the oil pipeline between Odessa and Brody, which was expected to pump Caspian oil westwards - a solution that would have greatly facilitated the oil import diversification in Central Europe - is to be reversed. For the next three years, Russian oil will be pumped southwards. Secondly, during the Yalta meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr. Kuchma and Mr. Yanukovych at the end of July, Ukraine announced the withdrawal of previous changes made to its military doctrine, which outlined the country’s aspirations for membership in NATO and EU.

Ahh, but they don't go any further as to the end market of this 'southern' flowing oil. What's at the end of the Ukraine South? The Black Sea is there for shipping, but if not to Europe? The ME? Europe's oil prices are already stratospheric, and if they could turn this around they might have more secure access to ME oil coming from Odessa.

But, of course, much of Euro policy is also dictated by certain, ah, influential members. This is from the CIA factbook:

After Russia, the Ukrainian republic was far and away the most important economic component of the former Soviet Union, producing about four times the output of the next-ranking republic. Its fertile black soil generated more than one-fourth of Soviet agricultural output, and its farms provided substantial quantities of meat, milk, grain, and vegetables to other republics.

I can think of at least one reason that the EU would not want Ukraine as a member from this one sentence. The same reason that they have massive subsidization of the agricultural sector leaving Africa out in the cold: France.

Bonjour, tariffs! Au revoir, non-Total ElFina Oil!