Turkey's Ascension: Knock! Knock!

When the ground starts getting hot
it doesn't matter if you run or not.
You're once a failure and twice a fool.
I will - knock knock.
If you won't - knock knock.
You're damned - knock knock.
If you don't - knock knock.
You did fine - knock knock.
Now you're mine - knock knock.
You avoided everything except for me.
I'm busting in won't pick the lock I'm busting in - knock knock.
--The Hives

World Press Review translates the opinion of the world for the english speaking. Good work, if you ask me. I can only take so much of MEMRI before I go nuts. I like the service MEMRI provides, but most of the time it simply digs up the most sensationalist of the arab press and presents that small snipet as representative.

Okay, on to Turkey:

The International Press on Turkey's European Union Membership Bid

Comment and analysis from London, Dubai, Beirut, Frankfurt and Istanbul, Oct. 8, 2004

London The Independent (liberal), Oct. 7: The Beatles were in the charts and John F. Kennedy in the White House when Turkey first sought admission to the common market. In the four decades that have since elapsed, the door to the club has opened to 19 other states, but it has remained firmly shut to the Turks. Yesterday [Wednesday] their membership of the European Union finally became a realistic … prospect … It is an overdue recognition of the impressive changes Turkey has undergone to turn itself into a modern participatory democracy. ... The Turks must not be spurned again.

London Al-Hayat (pan-Arab), Oct. 7: Many of the continent's states and architects of its dream have doubts about Turkey's European belonging. Some said that even if a part of Turkey is in Europe, this does not cancel the reality that Turkey lacks European roots in its culture and traditions. It was also said that Turkey is very large, very poor, and very different … With the European Commission's approval to begin negotiations regarding Turkey's joining the EU, a new phase begins … It is obvious that Turkey must change in order to join the European club. It is also clear that its accession would change the club's mood.
--Ghassan Charbel

Dubai Gulf News (independent), Oct. 8: No one expects this to happen for at least 10 years but there is no denying that this is a significant moment in European history. No country that has started the process of EU accession has ever failed to be granted membership. While the EU's 25 heads of government have the final word on when talks will start in earnest at their December summit an unstoppable momentum is now gathering.

3 big issues surround the bid:
1. Turkey is poor. Any opening of the trade borders to goods, people and services will mean a rapid influx of Turkish residents flooding the rest of Europe. Why? The purchasing power parity is about 7000/per capita (USD), well below the EU's standard. A gradual opening of markets to Turkey would be a good start to raise this level of GDP to somewhere in the area of 18,000 by the time entry becomes possible. Remember one of the key problems in German reunification was the per capita gdp differential. Turkey has lots of room to run in this department.

2. Turkey is muslim. The christian democrats of the EU are having a fit about this one and rightly so. The EU has been unable and unwilling to assimilate their own muslim populations because of rampant racism, self segregation and neglect of these immigrants. France is keeping its own population of muslim immigrants under wraps with state control of the mosques and a crazed foreign policy...but what of everywhere else? There will be a problem that far exceeds the one of Britain's integration situation in Northern England. The EU might want to use the resources and intelligence of its Turkish neighbour in handling and assimilating Turkish people in western Europe. Turkey for its part, has a history of being secular and democratic thanks to Ataturk, so its citizens are ready for state to run the show and not the imams.

3. Turkey has a large and rising population. The Turkish population of 70m will be a significant weight in the European parliament, and the EU knows it. While France and Germany already fret about their loss of power through the addition of the former Bloc countries, they will continue to lose power with a major new country to the southeast. The EU will continue to become less and less by the rich, stagnant and western, and increasingly, will be defined by rapidly growing, dynamic and 'foreign' nations of the east.

The demographics of the country mean an ever growing significance within the ever closer alliance. With a young, multiplying people as opposed to Europe's aging, and static population growth, Turkey's relative strength will eventually dwarf France's weight. That day is far away, but it is a forseeable future.