Tuesday, June 22, 2004

Election Notes

voter support has crystalized in the west, but in ontario, the place is a gong show. support has ramped up for the liberals, to 42% and dropped huge for the cons, down to 30%. why the drop? could be just a good solid 'harper = devil/ralph klein/mike harris' campaign.

who knows how this will play out, but its clear the cons knew this was happening, and thus the 'kiddie porn' debate, which shifted the campaign. today, harper is back attacking the liberals, as they try to explain their stance...

this is a deliberate strategy, the idea is to keep the other guy explaining the whole time, and by the time he puts one fire out, you have already set 5....norm spector has the lowdown here.

okay, now to the polls, this is ipsos':
As The Final Week Begins, Too Close To Call
Seat Projection Model Suggests Conservatives Take 110-114 Seats, Liberals 107-111, NDP 19-23, Bloc Quebecois 64-68 -- If Vote Held Tomorrow
Conservatives Stumble As Liberals Slip Back Into Lead In Decided Vote
Liberals (34%, Up 5 Points), Conservatives (28%, Down 4 Points), NDP (16%, Unchanged), Green (6%, Down 1 Point) – Bloc Quebecois (53% In Quebec Vs. 23% Liberal)

its true that the cons still have a lead in the seat projection, but that could change if they don't reverse this trend ..... i hope the cons don't bother coming out west, because we're already fans...just go for southwestern ontario where the votes need to be picked up.

ses research also has the cons losing by 3 points.

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