Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Terror Market
i thought this idea was ridiculous at first, but now it has a serious defence.......

if you think about this for a while it makes sense. if you remember 9/11, in the stock markets, the nikkei exchange posted huge futures action on 9/11....and they traced the futures trading to the mid east. strange...yes, it looks like bin laden and friends profited from it.

so a futures market, where the terrorists bet on the deeds they are about to commit would be interesting. although, the terrorists may know what the feds are doing, and purposefully mislead them by betting on events they would not make money on.....thus screwing up this scenario..........although, these guys are not the brightest guys on earth.

however, the idea is interesting: by giving anyone a profit motive to know what events are most likely, people, ordinary people, stock researchers, commodities exchange traders, etc will spend loads of time and money to make sure they know the surest bets, just like they do on the stock market. its a great way to make people a whole lot more likely participants in the war on terror....and probably highly accurate.

markets always have forknowledge of supposed 'secrets', like mergers, earngings, etc....knowledge has a way of creeping around when there is money at stake. and this market would be no different......

the idea of trading like this will disgust people however. making money of misfortunes is something the middle east did on 9/11. the west is above that kind of barbarism.

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