Thursday, June 26, 2003

The Decision to cut rates at the fed
Sensible mr. greenspan, the guy who watches the US's dry cleaners performance for fluctuations in the econonmy has cut rates again. see the chart at the top of this article..not promising.

here's the Japan syndrome:

Of course, concerns about deflation and slow growth are closely interlinked. If the American economy were to slide into deflation, with prices actually falling, hopes for a sustained economic recovery would be dashed. Once prices start to fall, consumers and businesses postpone all but the most essential purchases. What is the point of buying something now if it will be cheaper in a few months’ time? It is easy to see how quickly the economy could slide back towards recession. Japan, in or close to recession for much of the past decade, is now experiencing its fourth consecutive year of falling prices. The economy is moribund.

Well, you could also say that businesses and people might put off borrowing money if they think they can borrow more cheaply in the future. Maybe the fed should stop cutting the rate just so people know that the rates won't get any cheaper. I'm Just putting that one out there....same reasoning though.

Also of interest:

It is all too easy to overdo the gloom, though. Besides very low interest rates, productivity growth has held up better than many economists had predicted: indeed, that is one reason why the jobless total remains uncomfortably high, as companies manage to increase output with the same number of workers

that might be a reason...but it might be a good idea to post the employment rate , that is, how much of the overall population is employed... i know in canada, the rate has gone from 62% to 65% or something around there....while our overall unemployment rate (around 7.8%) has been constant for about a year....while our overall GDP has climbed...the employment rate is overlooked and underused.

Not surprisingly, the Canadian dollar is back to moving towards the 75 cent mark

No comments: